Is the (second) honeymoon over for Daniel Andrews?

Defenders of the Victorian Belt and Road deal point to many things the Coalition government has done in the name of trade with China. The lease of the Port of Darwin, a vital strategic maritime asset, is a big one. But there’s also the Belt and Road memorandum of understanding signed by the federal government in 2017, and as late as November 2018, Prime Minister Scott Morrison was still saying nice things about the initiative.

All true, but there’s no way the federal government would do any of that today. It’s even hard to see how the China-Australia Free Trade Deal, signed in 2015 after many years of negotiations, would get a run these days amid the growing antipathy and distrust between the two nations.

But against that background, the Premier now seems keen to push ahead with phase three of his Belt and Road deal, a “roadmap agreement” scheduled to be signed two months ago, but for the intervention of the virus.

If Victoria goes ahead and signs, “politically explosive” won’t begin to cover what would happen next. Andrews has a good excuse, with the global pandemic shutting international travel down for the foreseeable future, to go slow on the new deal and hope things settle down.

He doesn’t show any sign of considering that option of course – it’s just not his style – and it’s unclear whether his Chinese partners would go for it, either, or if Beijing would try to force the issue and secure a new Belt and Road trophy signature as it tightens the screws on Australia more broadly.