Tropical Storm Barry Could Impact New Orleans and Galveston Cruises

Update 7/10/19 @ 12:30 p.m.: Since our initial article about 24 hours ago on the tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, there has been some development in the situation.

At this time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given the storm a 100% chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the NHC has even gone so far as to issue an official track of the storm over the next several days:

As you can see, the cone of the track takes it anywhere from New Orleans to Galveston, with the middle of the track aiming for the southwestern Louisiana coast. That puts it right in the middle of the two cruise ports.

More importantly, the forecast shows the storm becoming a hurricane before making landfall Saturday or Sunday. At this point, it looks to be a tropical storm by Thursday evening. Assuming it strengthens to that level, it would be named Tropical Storm Barry. The storm would then strengthen to Hurricane Barry Friday evening into Saturday morning if this forecast holds.

So how will this impact cruises?

Obviously, hurricane force winds are a major issue — not just for travelers setting sail on their cruise this weekend but also those already on the ship and headed back to port. It now appears that ships sailing back to the Port of New Orleans specifically could be in for rough weather. Those sailing to and from Galveston may avoid much of the storm assuming it keeps the current track.

What’s likely to be the bigger issue is flooding. In fact, New Orleans is already seeing some flooding and the potential for considerable rain in the area for this system.

So far the cruise lines have made no public announcements about trips being altered due to the storm.

Royal Caribbean’s meteorologist James Van Fleet has said on Twitter that if the models stay consistent, then their ships sailing from Galveston on Friday and Sunday should be fine.

Update: New forecast discussion on #Invest92L for our @RoyalCaribbean Guests. Seeing some consistency for about 24 hours in Models track of this system. If we do end up with it in Southern Louisiana, Ships should be safe and good to go #Enchantment (Fri) #Liberty (Sun). pic.twitter.com/E3Q1HbAeqo

— James Van Fleet (@JamesVanFleet) July 10, 2019

Carnival, however, has yet to make a comment that we’ve seen. You can see their latest travel alerts on the Carnival website. We will continue to check for any updates.

Specifically, the Carnival Valor, which sails from New Orleans on Thursday (and is headed back to port tonight) is the most likely ship to face issues from Barry. The ship is sailing from Progreso, Mexico to New Orleans, meaning a straight shot through the storm’s current location.

Looking at the current track of the ship, it appears to be well on its way to New Orleans. Onboard webcams show some cloudy and rainy weather, but nothing too bad at this point. Given that, it will likely sail as scheduled in our opinion.

Meanwhile, the Carnival Glory doesn’t return to New Orleans until Sunday morning. By that point, the storm should be well past the area.

We’ll continue to update as needed. You can also see travel alerts for Royal Caribbean here and travel alerts for Carnival here.

Original article:

With June came the start of hurricane season. That means cruise passengers everywhere need to start watching the weather if they plan to sail any time during the summer and into the fall. And while it normally takes some time for the season to start producing storms (peaking in early September), tropical disturbances can occur at any point in the season.

Currently there is a low pressure system that could cause issues with cruises departing New Orleans and/or Galveston during this weekend.

Invest 92L is a spot of low pressure that has drifted south from Georgia over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. As of 1 p.m. central on Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center has given the system a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next 48 hours and an 80% chance within the next five days.

With the warm waters of the Gulf (where temperatures are close to 90 degrees Fahrenheit), the system could rapidly develop. In fact, the convection over just the past day has been impressive.

The good news is that no model has the potential storm becoming too intense. Most expect the system to turn into a tropical storm, with two showing it could hit the edge of hurricane status over the next few days.

The bad news is that the models are in near agreement that the system will move west, and likely make landfall somewhere between Galveston and New Orleans. Obviously that means it could impact cruises, especially with the storm anticipated to make landfall this weekend.

So far the forecasts call for the potential of heavy rain. The 7-day rainfall forecast even shows the potential for up to 10+ inches of rain in some spots.

In particular the Port of Galveston is prone to flooding. Past storms have caused street flooding, including some intense rainfall flooding some cars in cruise parking lots. Depending on the track and intensity of the storm, that’s a possibility this weekend.

Impact on Cruises

As of now there is no official word on any delays with cruises from Galveston or New Orleans. Royal Caribbean’s meteorologist James Van Fleet has kept updates via his Twitter page, most recently stating that it’s “too early at this time for any adjustments.” It’s doubtful any announcements for any cruise line would be made for at least 48-72 hours.

Update: #Invest92L for @RoyalCaribbean Guests. I still think we’ll be analyzing for another 24-48 hours before our confidence is high enough in exact track and strength. Possible impact on the return for #Liberty, #Enchantment, but it’s too early at this time for any adjustments. pic.twitter.com/bThJrQr8TQ

— James Van Fleet (@JamesVanFleet) July 9, 2019

For now, the best move is to continue to check with your cruise line and continue monitoring for any developments. In the past any changes to the schedule have been at the relatively last-minute. It’s frustrating for passengers, but the cruise lines don’t want to cancel a cruise — and cause a major disruption — if they don’t have to.

The following cruises are slated to sail from Galveston and New Orleans this weekend:

Galveston
Friday: Enchantment of the Seas
Saturday: Carnival Dream
Sunday: Carnival Freedom;Liberty of the Seas

New Orleans
Thursday: Carnival Valor
Sunday: Carnival Glory

One thing that should be sure: If you are sailing from New Orleans or Galveston this weekend, be ready to get wet.