Coronavirus And Travel: The Scary Facts (And The Reassuring Ones)

With reports emerging of two deaths in the US due to novel coronavirus (also known as COVID-19) and cases of coronavirus exploding around the country and around the globe, travelers are panicking as they wonder what this means when it comes to their personal safety—and for their upcoming trips. Read on for some scary facts—like what an air quality expert thinks this means for cruise ships and airplanes—as well as the results of some worrisome travel studies. But we’ve also got some reassuring advice and helpful information on travel. This is an emerging story; please continue to check back for updates.

Coronavirus: The Situation

At press time, more than 3,000 people have died around the globe from the novel coronavirus and infections have been reported in dozens of countries and at least 10 states. The skyrocketing numbers of coronavirus cases and the growing death toll has had worldwide travel ramifications, forcing the cancellation of major conferences like Berlin’s ITB—the largest travel and tourism event in the world—closures of tourist sites such as the Louvre museum in Paris, airlines cancelling flights and companies cancelling business travel at alarming rates. According to a recent Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) survey of 401 companies, 65% report that they have cancelled meetings or events due to the coronavirus.

The World Health Organization has not declared COVID-19 a pandemic, but experts are saying that it could be the worst travel crisis since the September 11 terrorist attacks.

“While it’s important to temper the hysteria and make it clear that the travel and tourism sector is not going to grind to a halt altogether, we must be realistic and acknowledge the fact that it will need to navigate choppy waters for some time to come,” says Nick Wyatt, head of RA and Travel Tourism at GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. “This is likely to get worse before it gets better again.”

And there are definitely choppy waters out there. The cruise industry has been particularly hard hit after headline-making incidents like the quarantine of the Diamond Princess in Japan—resulting in hundreds of passengers being sickened and at least 10 deaths—and Holland America’s MS Westerdam, which was turned away from countries across Asia.

Coronavirus: Spreading the Disease

According to reports, many travelers are postponing or cancelling their cruise vacations, as a result. That might be a good thing, if you listen to Purdue University air quality expert Qingyan Chen, the James G. Dwyer Professor of Mechanical Engineering. Chen—who has researched the spread of air particles in passenger vehicles and how to track them—says that cruise ship air conditioning systems are not designed to filter out particles as small as the coronavirus, allowing the disease to rapidly circulate to other cabins.

“It’s standard practice for the air conditioning systems of cruise ships to mix outside air with inside air to save energy. The problem is that these systems can’t filter out particles smaller than 5,000 nanometers,” says Chen. “If the coronavirus is about the same size as SARS, which is 120 nanometers in diameter, then the air conditioning system would be carrying the virus to every cabin.”

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On airplanes, the coronavirus is more likely to spread by touch than through the air, says Chen, since the air conditioning systems of planes are capable of filtering out particles as small as viruses. But air carrying the virus could transfer to other people sitting in the same row as an infected passenger or a neighboring row. “The further away you’re sitting from a person who is infected, the better,” says Chen, who also warns that toilets are the biggest hot spot for the virus on a plane. “Stool also contains viruses. Close the lid before you flush to limit how much goes into the air,” he says, recommending that travelers also use disinfecting wipes with alcohol to prevent the spread of the virus through touch.

Another scary fact: Close to 20% of passengers have flown sick on a plane, either knowingly or unknowingly, according to a new survey from travel search engine Reservations.com—though the company’s cofounder and CEO Yatin Patel believes that there’s been a shift as of late. “We’ve definitely seen a shift in travelers behaviors throughout the recent outbreak with travelers becoming more conscious about flying while sick, as well as more conscious about fellow passengers traveling while sick,” says Patel.

So is flying on a plane with other sick passengers dangerous? It depends on who you ask—and where you’re sitting. A recent study by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that the 11 closest people seated near the sick passenger had an 80% chance of becoming infected themselves. (The researchers ran a network-based transmission model and simulation to estimate chances of becoming infected by an airborne disease.)

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Reassuring Travelers

Despite those sobering stats, travel industry professionals are doing their best to reassure travelers, keep them calm—and offer solutions.

Many travel companies are starting to offer generous cancellation policies. For instance, JetBlue is waiving the fees for changes and cancelling travel bookings made between February 27, 2020, and March 11, 2020, for travel through June 1, 2020.

The cruise lines are also being flexible in order to ease worries about cruising amid a coronavirus outbreak. Windstar Cruises has introduced a new Travel Assurance Booking Policy, changing its rules so that travelers can cancel up to 15 days before departure and not lose their money. They will receive a future cruise credit for 100% of the cruise fare paid. Other lines have put similar policies in place.

Jack Ezon, founder and managing partner of Embark, a luxury lifestyle and travel planning business that caters to a high-net-worth audience, says that he’s seen about 45% of clients cancelling trip plans between now and April. “But we’ve rebooked about half of those,” he says. “So 45% have cancelled their original plans and about half of those have rebooked to things that they feel more comfortable with. For example, we cancelled a trip to Amsterdam for a family, but we moved them to Nashville.”

Beyond April, Ezon says that only 2% of travelers are cancelling trips. “I have people who are saying, ‘It’s a cold. It’s a bad cold. A bad flu. But I’m not going to stop my life.’”

Perception Versus Reality

Ezon also points out that perception might be scarier than reality. “Our team was in northern Italy last weekend on a site inspection for a potential wedding this summer, just as news was coming out,” says Ezon. “What surprised me was the disparity between perception and reality. Not only was the airport fine and things operating on schedule, places like Florence, Rome and the Amalfi Coast were having an ordinary day with streets full of people.” 

And indeed, travel industry experts in Italy report that life is going on as usual in most of the country.

“There is currently a red zone in northern Italy, while the rest of the country is totally free of infections and restrictions. The red zone has been quarantined to prevent and limit the spread of the virus,” explains Vito Cinque, owner of Il San Pietro di Positano hotel on the Amalfi Coast. “Currently the virus has affected 0.0089% of the local population…but the seriously ill are people with pre-existing conditions while more than half of the infected have no symptoms or have mild symptoms and are treated at home. Like a normal flu. For this reason, after initially stopping the activities and closing the museums, everything is returning to normal from this morning. The measures were preventive in nature, but many considered them alarmist.”

“We are communicating to all our friends in the world the message that traveling in Italy is safe: not because we are in the hotel sector, but because it is the reality,” says Cinque.

Urbano Brini, cofounder of the tour operator Florencetown, agrees: “Life in Florence is completely normal. All schools and public as well as private offices are open. People are going to work, to museums, to the movies, to restaurants.”

According to Martino Acampora, general manager of J.K.Place hotel in Capri, the situation in Italy is totally normal with the exception of the Milan area and Venice area. “I travel between Capri and Rome on weekly basis and I can confirm that trains are running smoothly, train stations are full and nobody is using masks. Life in general is normal, we have zero restrictions,” says Acampora. “Would I suggest people to travel to Italy? To give a politically correct answer, I would say traveling to Italy is safe anywhere but Milan area (Lombardia Region) and Venice area (Veneto Region). To give my own perspective I would say traveling to Italy is as safe as it is to travel anywhere else in Europe/world. Italy has taken actions of massive prevention.”

But the situation is impacting business, regardless—especially in the travel sector, notes Davide Bertilaccio, regional vice president and managing director of the Rosewood Castiglion del Bosco hotel in Montalcino. “Business has been badly affected by this situation, where in some cases over 50% of the bookings have been released; probably caused more by the reaction of single countries which have imposed severe restrictions where travelers who have been in Italy are required some period in quarantine,” says Bertilaccio. “And this is considerably changing the economic scenario, not only for the tourism sector.”

Ezon himself is currently in Puerto Rico and noted that—despite media reports—airports, planes and hotels are full. “I was in the airport this past Friday flying to Puerto Rico where I am now,” he says. “The airport was jammed. There were no seats on the plane, and staying here at Ritz Carlton’s Dorado Beach, they are at 95% occupancy.” 

Helpful Advice for Travelers

Here, Embark offers some helpful and practical advice for travelers in regards to coronavirus:

· As you should always do, stay clean and sanitize, avoiding touching your mouth, nose or ears.

· Masks don’t prevent anyone from getting a virus but, rather, reduce the risk of someone spreading it.

· Never speculate on safety anywhere.

· Put things into perspective rather than getting caught up in media sensationalism.

· Pay with a credit card.

· If you feel like you will have anxiety about being away from home, then save your trip for another time.

Another suggestion: Since travel insurance won’t cover you, consider buying a Cancel For Any Reason (CFAR) upgrade, which will help you cancel a trip due to fear of getting ill or general concerns over COVID-19. CFAR is an optional time-sensitive benefit available on some plans that allow a traveler to cancel a trip for any reason, up to 48 hours prior to the scheduled departure. Reimbursement is usually 50-75% of the prepaid, non-refundable trip cost. A traveler must meet specific eligibility requirements and must purchase a policy with CFAR selected within 14-21 days of making an initial trip payment or deposit.

InsureMyTrip reports high demand for travel insurance since the first travel-related case of novel coronavirus was detected in the US. Data researchers at the travel insurance comparison show a 60% increase in policies sold since January 21st, 2020 that specifically include a “cancel for any reason” benefit. 

Ultimately, Reservation.com’s Patel hopes and believes that there will be a positive end result. “I believe that the current situation will have a strong impact on the way we travel for years to come. It has definitely been a wakeup call for citizens globally,” says Patel. “All we can hope is that as a result of negative circumstances such as this, we will continue to see positive change moving forward to ensure that this does not happen again and continue to ensure the safety of travelers.”

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