Harvey Could Regenerate in the Western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche This Week
The remnants of Harvey are tracking briskly through the Caribbean Sea.
Harvey could regenerate in the western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche this week.
Regardless, Harvey’s remnants will bring locally heavy rain to Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula.
Two other areas of disturbed weather are being monitored for development in the Atlantic Basin.
The remnants of former Tropical Storm Harvey will continue to track west-northwestward through the Caribbean Sea and eventually into the Bay of Campeche where a regeneration of the system could occur this week.
Hostile winds aloft shredded Harvey apart on Saturday, and the National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory.
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What is left of Harvey is a cluster of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the south of Jamaica, which became more concentrated Sunday afternoon but has since decreased in coverage and intensity.
A hurricane hunter aircraft investigated the remnants of Harvey Sunday afternoon and found that the system hadn’t regenerated into a tropical depression or tropical storm because it lacked a well-defined center of circulation, and there was also no indication of tropical-storm-force winds.
Through Monday, Harvey is forecast to enter the western Caribbean where conditions could be somewhat conducive for the gradual reorganization of the system as it moves west-northwestward.
Heavy rain from this system could cause flooding in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula by Monday or Tuesday regardless of whether Harvey can reform prior to reaching those land areas.
By the middle portion of this week, Harvey’s remnants should move into the Bay of Campeche (southwest Gulf of Mexico) where they will have to be monitored closely. Some forecast guidance suggests Harvey could reform over this region even if it doesn’t get its act together prior to reaching Central America and the Yucatan.
Residents and visitors in eastern Mexico and south Texas should continue to follow the progress of Harvey’s remnants, as uncertainty remains with forecast details.
Two Other Disturbances to Monitor
Invest 92L continues to fester about a hundred miles north-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Wind shear has chipped away at 92L’s structure – hostile wind shear typically rips apart tropical disturbances and weaker tropical cyclones.
We will continue to monitor the progress of Invest 92L as it moves west-northwestward during the next couple days in the general direction of the northern Bahamas and southern Florida.
This system will enhance rainfall chances in the Bahamas, as well as much of Florida, early this week.
It may eventually interact with a cold front near Florida by later this week, and that’s when we’ll keep a close eye on it for any potential increase in organization. For now, the National Hurricane Center gives it a medium chance of development within the next five days.
Finally, a tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean is not expected to develop, but we will watch it over the next few days. Its future track is expected to be northwestward into the open Atlantic Ocean.
We are in the climatological peak of the hurricane season, so each tropical wave or area of low pressure in the Atlantic Basin must be watched closely for development.
(MORE: Where Every U.S. Landfalling Hurricane Began Its Journey)
Now is a good time to make sure you have a plan in case of a hurricane strike. The Federal Alliance for Safe Homes has an excellent website to help you make your plan.
Check back with weather.com for updates in the days ahead on these latest systems and the rest of hurricane season.
(MORE: The Weather Company Forecasts More Active Hurricane Season Than First Predicted)
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